Maximizing probability

Originally posted by uzless
There will be a draw held at the county fair. 10 tickets will be entered. 4 will be winning tickets. All tickets will be put into a box and randomly drawn. There will be 10 draws. After the first draw, the ticket will be discarded so there will only be 9 tickets remaining etc etc.

You must try to "predict" which draw will hold a winning ticket. Whic ...[text shortened]...
Can you devise a strategy or do you think it makes no difference at all which draw you pick?

I think it's agreed that the solution to this problem is that any choice (1-10) gives the same probability of picking a winning ticket.

How about this:

Is there a strategy/algorithm to maximize the probability of picking a winning ticket if you can watch as they are drawn?

For example, before the first drawing you can say either "select" or "pass". If you say select, then that is your choice and you are banking that that ticket is a winner. If you say pass, then you get to watch the result of the first drawing, and decide to select or pass on the second drawing, and so on.

Originally posted by fiftyonehz
I think it's agreed that the solution to this problem is that any choice (1-10) gives the same probability of picking a winning ticket.

How about this:

Is there a strategy/algorithm to maximize the probability of picking a winning ticket if you can watch as they are drawn?

For example, before the first drawing you can say either "select" or "pass result of the first drawing, and decide to select or pass on the second drawing, and so on.

Let's call the original problem number one, and this one number two.

What will the winning be if you bet one dollar and there is an expectation value of exactly =1 ...

...in problem one?
...in problem two?

I don't know the answer myself, but maybe it is a tough nut to crack for our friends probability experts here?

Originally posted by uzless
There will be a draw held at the county fair. 10 tickets will be entered. 4 will be winning tickets. All tickets will be put into a box and randomly drawn. There will be 10 draws. After the first draw, the ticket will be discarded so there will only be 9 tickets remaining etc etc.

You must try to "predict" which draw will hold a winning ticket. Whic ...[text shortened]...
Can you devise a strategy or do you think it makes no difference at all which draw you pick?

Rob 6 otheer people.